INDIA BANGLADESH RELATIONS- SHEIKH HASINA EXIT

Sheikh Hasina's unexpected resignation and departure from Bangladesh abruptly ended her 15-year rule, creating a significant political vacuum. This shift could have profound implications for India-Bangladesh relations, requiring India to adapt to the new political landscape.

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IMPORTANCE OF INDIA BANGLADESH RELATIONS

• Geostrategic: Bangladesh is vital to India for access to the Bay of Bengal and as a trade route to Southeast Asia.

• Geopolitical: A stable and friendly Bangladesh is essential for India's security, counter-terrorism, border security, and support for India's bid for a UNSC permanent seat.

• Economic: Strengthening economic ties with Bangladesh is key to boosting India's exports and achieving its $5 trillion economy target.

• Cultural and Civilizational: Bangladesh shares cultural and religious ties with India, including significant Hindu Bengali populations and historic sites.

• Global Cooperation: Cooperation between India and Bangladesh is crucial for the success of regional forums like BIMSTEC, SAARC, and global initiatives like UNFCCC COPs.

CURRENT ISSUES IN INDIA BANGLADESH RELATIONS

• Transboundary River Waters Sharing: India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, but only two treaties exist—Ganga Waters Treaty and Kushiyara River Treaty. The unresolved Teesta river dispute remains a significant issue, with Bangladesh seeking equitable water distribution.

• Rohingya Deportation: India and Bangladesh have conflicting priorities regarding Rohingya deportation to Myanmar, with India prioritising deportation from its mainland first.

• Cross-Border Terrorism and Infiltration: Cross-border terrorism, infiltration, and crimes like armed dacoity, fake currency, cattle smuggling, and prostitution through the Bangladesh border pose security threats to India.

• Drug Smuggling & Trafficking: Bangladesh serves as a key transit point for drug trafficking, particularly heroin from South Asia to Europe, as highlighted by the 2007 INCB report.

• Increasing Chinese Influence: China's increasing investments in Bangladesh through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) challenge India's regional influence, with major infrastructure projects bolstering Chinese presence.

• Attacks on Minorities: Ethnic attacks on Bangla-speaking Hindus in Bangladesh and on Bangladeshis in India have strained cultural and people-to-people relations between the two nations.

PROSPERITY OF INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS UNDER SHEIKH HASINA’S REGIME

• Eradication of Anti-India Terror Groups: Sheikh Hasina's return to power led to the eradication of anti-India terror groups, including Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, which had operated during the BNP-Jamaat rule (2001-06).

• Boost to Bilateral Trade: Bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh flourished under Sheikh Hasina, reaching $13 billion in FY 2023-24. Bangladesh became India's largest trade partner in the subcontinent, while India became Bangladesh's second-largest partner in Asia after China. India granted duty-free quota access to Bangladesh on most tariff lines under SAFTA since 2011.

• Enhanced Connectivity Projects: Under Sheikh Hasina, India and Bangladesh enhanced infrastructure and connectivity. Key projects include the Akhaura-Agartala and Khulna-Mongla rail links, five operational bus routes connecting major cities, an agreement to use Chittagong and Mongla ports for cargo movement, and $8 billion in Indian credit lines for infrastructure development since 2016.

• Discussions on FTA: India and Bangladesh initiated negotiations for a free trade agreement under Sheikh Hasina, aiming to reduce or eliminate customs duties and promote trade and investments.

• Land Boundary Agreement (2015): The 2015 agreement resolved a long-standing dispute by exchanging disputed islands and allowing residents to choose their country.

• Energy Cooperation: Energy ties deepened, with Bangladesh importing nearly 2,000 MW of electricity from India. The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline will transport 1 million metric tonnes of diesel annually to Bangladesh.

• Defence Cooperation: India and Bangladesh strengthened defence ties through joint military exercises like Sampriti (Army) and Bongosagar (Navy), managing their 4,096.7 km shared border.

• Tourism Sector: Bangladeshis form a significant portion of tourists in India, surpassing Western European tourists in 2017.

• Medical Cooperation: Bangladesh accounts for over 35% of India's international medical patients, contributing more than 50% of India's medical tourism revenue.

CAUSES FOR SHEIKH HASINA’S EXIT

• Student Protests to Nationwide Movement: A peaceful student protest against the 30% freedom fighter reservation in civil services escalated into a nationwide movement due to the government's heavy-handed response, including attacks by the Bangladesh Chhatra League, curfews, and labelling protesters as 'Razakars.'

• Economic Slowdown: Bangladesh's rapid economic progress under Sheikh Hasina slowed due to the pandemic and global economic downturn, impacting the garment industry, increasing unemployment and inflation, and causing public discontent.

• Erosion of Democratic Values: The parliamentary elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 were marked by low turnout, violence, and opposition boycotts, undermining democratic values.

• Reliance on Hard Power: Hasina's government increasingly used hard power, including the Digital Security Act 2018, to suppress dissent and control online expression, creating a climate of fear.

• Growing Economic Inequality: Despite overall economic progress, bank scams, defaulters, and rampant corruption fueled public discontent, with companies like CLC Power and Western Marine Shipyard topping the list of defaulters.

CHALLENGES IN INDIA-BANGLADESH RELATIONS POST SHEIKH HASINA'S EXIT

• Resurfacing Security Challenges: Anti-India groups may resurface, posing risks similar to those during the BNP-Jamaat years, exacerbated by ongoing tensions with Pakistan and the PLA.

• Risk to India’s Connectivity with the North-east: Disruptions in Indo-Bangladesh relations could limit India’s access to the Northeast, heightening unrest in the region.

• Impact on Bilateral Trade and FTA: Sheikh Hasina’s exit might jeopardise bilateral trade and hinder progress on the potential free trade agreement (FTA).

• Deterioration of People-to-People relations: New power centres in Dhaka may harbour grievances against India, affecting people-to-people relations.

• Geopolitical Challenges: Pakistan and China may use the political change in Bangladesh to challenge India’s influence and undermine its position.

INDIA’S APPROACH TO DEAL WITH THE BANGLADESH CRISIS

• Support for Popular Expression: India should support the expression of popular will in neighbouring countries, as it did with Nepal's 2006 movement for democracy.

• Readiness to Expand Bilateral Ties: India should signal its willingness to enhance economic ties with the new government and avoid branding political changes as anti-India.

• Cautious Approach: India should remain discreet and keep the door open for strong relations, as seen with its approach to the Maldives under Mohamed Muizzu.

• Joint Task Forces and Smart Border Management: Establish joint task forces to tackle cross-border issues like drug smuggling, human trafficking, and illegal immigration.

• Digital Connectivity Corridor: Create a digital connectivity corridor for high-speed internet, digital services, and e-commerce to boost trade and technological exchange.

• Early Conclusion of FTA: Finalize the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Bangladesh before it loses its LDC status in 2026, ensuring the FTA is not exploited by China through the RCEP agreement.